A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
